Opinion Poll, May 2003

Graphical representation of report

Following an event of high drama when police raided Sinn Fein offices at Stormont with allegations of political spying, the then Secretary of State, Dr John Reid, suspended the Assembly and other institutions established under the Good Friday Agreement, and reintroduced Direct Rule. (John Reid was shortly replaced that month by Paul Murphy).

Subsequently, an Assembly election date was set for early May whilst negotiations ensued, but was first postponed to late May, and then postponed indefinitely, on the grounds that the intentions of the IRA had not been satisfactorily articulated.

A primary objective of this survey was therefore to determine whether people in Northern Ireland wished to see an end to the suspension and the Stormont institutions restored, or whether Direct Rule should continue.

As things stood at the time of the survey (9th to 14th May), the population as a whole was very evenly divided on this issue, 41% of the view that the Secretary of State should end suspension, and 39% of the view that he should not. However, it was clear that Unionists and Nationalists differed fundamentally, 59% of the former against restoring the institutions of the Agreement, whilst 63% of the latter thought that he should do so. Only 27% of Unionists agreed with Nationalists on the ending of suspension.

In this context, it was also found that 61% of Unionists thought that The Prime Minister was justified in postponing the Assembly elections, compared to 31% of Nationalists. (Overall, the Northern Ireland population has narrowly endorsed Tony Blair’s decision: 48% thought he was justified, compared to 38% unjustified.)

However, in the event that the IRA might make an unequivocal and unambiguous statement to the effect that they would never again use weapons regardless of circumstances, it was clear that many Unionists would be prepared to review their opposition to restoring Northern Ireland’s devolved power-sharing Government: 57% would be in favour of ending suspension were such a statement forthcoming, although a sizeable minority of 34% would remain unconvinced and in favour of suspension.

A fundamental political and ethical debate in the establishment of power-sharing has been whether a political party linked to an armed paramilitary organization should be permitted, or had the right, to participate in that power-sharing. It was clear from the survey that in the event of Sinn Fein completely ending such links through the disbandment of the IRA and decommissioning of all weapons, then Unionist willingness to reinstate the Stormont institutions would rise even further, to 76%, leaving 17% still against.

A further indicator of the lack of Unionist trust in the non-violent intentions of the Republican movement emerged in response to the question: ‘Do you believe Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness are genuinely seeking an end to all IRA activity?’ Whilst 88% of Nationalists responded affirmatively, Unionists were much more sceptical, only 28% believed this was the case, compared to 56% who did not. (16% were unsure.)

When Unionists were invited to declare which of 7 leading politicians they thought was currently the best to lead Unionism, none emerged with an overall majority support, with David Trimble coming top, nominated by 31%. He was, however, closely followed by Jeffrey Donaldson at 26%. The long-standing DUP founder and leader, Ian Paisley, was the only other politician to be nominated by more than 1 in 10, at 11%.

Finally, one of the most contentious issues in recent years has been the reform of policing in Northern Ireland, with the renaming of the RUC to the Police Service of Northern Ireland; new quota-based recruitment procedures; and the establishment of bodies such as the Police Ombudsman. Overall, only 5% of the population now regard themselves as ‘very satisfied’ with the totality of arrangements for policing, with a further 49% adopting a more equivocal stance of being ‘fairly satisfied’. 36% were expressly dissatisfied, and 10% had no opinion. On this basis it appears that there is much to be done by way of reassuring the public that the new arrangements can deliver an improved and acceptable police force. Interestingly, the broad pattern of opinion on this issue was similar for Unionists and Nationalists, albeit for very different reasons. Unionists were, however, somewhat less satisfied than Nationalists: 47% were satisfied compared to 57%.

The survey involved 900 interviews by telephone with a representative sample of the Northern Ireland population aged 18+ between 9th and 14th of May 2003. The survey was conducted by Millward Brown Ulster according to the definitive standards of the Interview Quality Control Scheme (IQCS) and within the code of conduct of the Market Research Society.

Graphical representation of report