Belfast Telegraph / Ulster Marketing Surveys Opinion Poll (October 2001)

Contents :

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

In the wake of General de Chastelain's announcement that he verified that a significant act of IRA decommissioning had occurred last week, Ulster Marketing Surveys carried out an opinion poll to ascertain the state of public opinion in Northern Ireland, focusing on the credibility and impact of this statement and in particular how this impinges on views on David Trimble's effort to regain the position of First Minister. A representative sample of 1,010 adults (18+) were interviewed on the 30th October 2001. The programme of interviews was undertaken by fully trained and experienced interviewers, according to the definitive quality standards of the IQCS. (Interviewer Quality Control Scheme). All interviewing was carried out on a face-to-face basis at 56 sampling points selected at random throughout Northern Ireland.

For the purposes of examining trends over time, the results of the question on confidence in future peace in this poll have been compared to other opinion polls carried out by Ulster Marketing Surveys in May 1998, June1998, October 2000 and May 2001.

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

Within the context of General de Chastelain's verification of IRA decommissioning, the NI public are twice as likely to view David Trimble seeking reinstatement as justified rather than unjustified. Although the ratio of the balance of sentiment is not quite as strong amongst Protestants, nonetheless the majority of Protestants (51%) view David Trimble to be justified in his actions. 3 in 10 (30%) Protestants consider his desire to be reinstated as unjustified, this view intensifies within lower socio-economic groups, increasing from 23% of ABC1 Protestants to 38% of DE Protestants. Protestant support for the change in position of David Trimble is strongest amongst females (56%) and those aged over 50 (61%).

Reinstatement of David Trimble and a resumption of the assembly is the most popular option for the way forward in NI, attracting 43% of the general public overall. With the exception of Direct Rule (5%) the other options attracted relatively similar proportions of the public overall (13-17%). The reinstatement of David Trimble is most solidly supported by those aged over 50 in both denominations. There is also much greater support amongst the higher socio-economic groups in both denominations. Amongst those less inclined to see David Trimble reinstated, Protestants were more likely to wish to see the Good Friday agreement renegotiated (25%); a sentiment more strongly supported by C2DE Protestants, or fresh elections held (16%). Catholics not in favour of David Trimble being reinstated would be more inclined towards the election of someone else as First Minister (23%).

In the event of David Trimble being reinstated a half of the NI public (50%) would like to see David Trimble leave the issue of decommissioning to General de Chastelain. Almost 4 in 10 (38%) consider that David Trimble should resign in the event that there is no further IRA decommissioning by February 2002. There is a substantial variance in opinion by denomination; Protestants are twice as likely to favour David Trimble keeping a watching brief on IRA decommissioning (59%) compared to only 1 in 10 (10%) Catholics. ABC1 Protestants are less likely to support David Trimble continuing to act on the basis of future IRA decommissioning (53%) than lower socio-economic groups, however the opportunity to resign in the event of no further IRA decommissioning remains the majority sentiment amongst white collar Protestants. Amongst Catholics the view that David Trimble should stand back from the issue of decommissioning increases with both age (88% 50+) and socio-economic group (82% ABC1).

Half of the NI public (51%) believe General de Chastelain when he said that a significant act of decommissioning was carried out last week. 1 in 3 (33%) people do not believe him. Generally most Catholics (79%) and in particular older and more up-market Catholics believe the General's statement. Protestants are twice as likely to disbelieve (52%) rather than believe (29%) General de Chastelain's statement, and this is most marked amongst DE Protestants (62%).

4 in 5 people would like to see loyalist paramilitaries reciprocate with an act of decommissioning, only some 1 in 8 (12%) would disapprove of such action. Such an act of decommissioning attracts cross community support, albeit that Catholics are more supportive (92%). Three quarters of Protestants (73%) would wish to see loyalist paramilitaries decommission, this desire is stronger amongst Protestant women (76%) and ABC1 Protestants (79%). One quarter (26%) of DE Protestants would not support loyalist decommissioning.

David Trimble (45%) is the most popular choice as leader of the UUP, however half as many people (21%) would favour Jeffrey Donaldson. No other politician attracts significant level of support for this position of leadership. There are substantial differences in the opinion of Catholics, who would be ten times more likely to favour David Trimble (51%) over Jeffrey Donaldson (5%), and Protestants where the balance of opinion on who should lead the party is more equitable, David Trimble (39%) being favoured over Jeffrey Donaldson (34%) by only 5 percentage points. Amongst Protestants support for David Trimble's leadership is much more strongly ABC1 oriented, ABC1 Protestants being twice as likely to favour David Trimble over Jeffrey Donaldson.

A measure of public confidence in the future prospects for a long and lasting peace has been taken in various Ulster Marketing Surveys polls since May 1998. The measure taken prior to the general election this year indicated a continued decline in public confidence, with the level stating confidence having fallen from 55% in 1998 to 42% in 2000 and further to 33% in May of this year. There has been no significant decline or increase in confidence in future peace since then, with 31% being at least fairly confident and 66% being at least not very confident. It is the confidence of Catholics that has been most eroded over time and indeed this has continued to decline with 42% of Catholics being confident now compared to 51% in May of this year. Females tend to be more pessimistic about future peace than males. Younger Catholics and Catholics in lower socio-economic groups tend to be less confident about the future peace. Amongst Protestants levels of confidence increase with age (13% 18-24's compared to 25% of over 50's), whilst strong levels of pessimism increase with declining socio-economic group (29% ABC1's compared to 42% DE's)

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