The Good Friday Agreement - Latest Public Opinion
(First published in The Belfast Telegraph, 25/26 October 2000)

In May 1998 an inter-party political Agreement was endorsed by Referendum: 71% voted in favour of the Agreement, and 29% voted against. Subsequently, an election was held to return 108 members to the new Assembly, which in turn internally elected the Executive, comprising 12 members, headed by David Trimble (First Minister), and Seamus Mallon (Deputy First Minister). However, one of the provisions of the Agreement related to IRA de-commissioning, and as no de-commissioning had occurred by February 2000, the Executive and Assembly were suspended by Peter Mandelson, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. Further negotiations ensued, as a result of which the Assembly and Executive were re-instated on the grounds that IRA "arms dumps" would be inspected by the de-commissioning body led by General de Chastelain. This arrangement was accepted at a special meeting of David Trimble's Ulster Unionist Party, but by October 2000, the continuing lack of IRA de-commissioning led to growing speculation as to the level of internal UUP support for the Agreement. As a core principle of the Agreement is inclusivity (i.e., that all the signatory parties must both participate and honour their stated commitments), a UUP ejection of David Trimble as leader could well terminate the Executive, Assembly and Agreement. During the period from the Agreement to the present, there has been continuing violence in the form of localized intimidation and beatings, atrocities by the Real IRA, and an out-break of violence between rival Loyalist paramilitary groups. Other controversial issues have been the Patten recommendations on the future of policing in Northern Ireland, and the widespread releases of paramilitary convicts.

Against this background, Ulster Marketing Surveys carried out an opinion poll to ascertain the state of public opinion in Northern Ireland, focusing on support for the Agreement, the Executive, and for David Trimble. A representative sample of 1,051 adults (18+) was interviewed on October 25th and 26th 2000, by fully trained and experienced interviewers, according to the definitive quality standards of the IQCS (Interviewer Quality Control Scheme). All interviewing was carried out face-to-face at 50 sampling points selected at random throughout Northern Ireland.

Effectively one quarter of the Northern Ireland Electorate are of the view that the Executive and Assembly should once again be suspended: 59% wish it to continue, and 18% are undecided. However, there is strong polarization according to religion: whereas Catholics are more or less universally opposed to suspension, the Protestant side of the community is very divided on this issue: 38% call for suspension, 42% do not (20% don't know).

SHOULD NORTHERN IRELAND EXECUTIVE AND ASSEMBLY BE SUSPENDED?

With regards specifically to whether the Ulster Unionist Party should unilaterally withdraw from the Executive, a very similar picture emerged, with 28% overall taking this view, compared to 67% who believe they should continue operating within the Executive: interestingly, this overall picture is almost exactly matched when the views of UUP voters are examined: 27% feel their party should withdraw, but 68% believe it should continue with the standing political arrangements. Amongst UUP voters, David Trimble continues to command majority support: 59% consider he is the best person to lead the party, followed by Jeffrey Donaldson (29%), John Taylor (5%), and Rev. #S Martin Smyth (4%).

SHOULD ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY WITHDRAW FROM THE EXECUTIVE?

POLITICIAN BEST TO LEAD THE ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY

[ Base: UUP Voters ]

The overall distribution of party support (on a first preference basis), indicates that both the SDLP and Ulster Unionist Party have improved their positions when compared to the 1998 Assembly Elections. In contrast, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) appears to have marginally lost ground (from 18% to 16%), and Sinn Fein also appear to have lost ground from 17.7% to 12%.

PARTY SUPPORT

In interpreting these party support findings, 3 considerations apply:

1. Voting in Northern Ireland elections is influenced considerably by personalities as well as by party policies, and the increased electioneering presence of key political personalities in the run-up to an actual election can be considerable.
2. There has been a marked trend towards low turn-outs in recent elections. Low turn-outs tend to favour DUP and Sinn Fein whose supporters are more strongly motivated. Thus, the opinion poll tends to reflect the political affinities of the electorate as a whole, akin to a situation where the turn-out in an election was very high.
3. The Electoral Office has made it clear that there is an unacceptably high level of voting malpractice in the form of personation and other improprieties, and is investigating ways of improving the situation. The opinion poll is free from such malpractice and to that extent may reflect a truer indicator of party support.

CONFIDENCE IN LONG AND LASTING PEACE

There has been a very marginal decline in support for the Agreement: in 1998, 71% voted 'yes' compared to 69% more recently. However, amongst Protestants, this converts very narrow majority support (51%), for the Agreement to very narrow majority opposition (53%).

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IN AGREEMENT REFERENDUM

Worryingly, there appears to have been a sharp decline in confidence about the ultimate prospects for long and lasting peace: although Catholics remain substantially more confident than Protestants, this fall-off has occurred on both sides of the community.

AGREEMENT REFERENDUM - TRENDS

[ Base: Decided Voters ]