Business Opinion in Northern Ireland (October 2000)

In last month's edition of Ulster Business magazine, findings from a major survey of business opinion, conducted by Ulster Marketing Surveys were presented. In this edition the remainder of the results are examined including opinions on further 'real' economic issues facing the Northern Ireland Business Community.

Optimism was shown to be high last month, at least for the short term, which is further reflected with the highest ever-recorded long-term optimism, with 3 in 4 feeling at least quite optimistic. Almost 1 in 5 were very optimistic.

Most, 7 in 10, of the sample felt the performance of the Northern Ireland Economy had been at least fairly good over the last 12 months and believed it would perform similarly over the next 12 months. This was reinforced with a clear majority, nearly 9 in 10, rating their own company's performance as at least fairly profitable. Around 6 in 10 claimed this performance was achieving and in some cases exceeding targets they had set for themselves. Expectations for their own companies for the following year have also been optimistic with almost 3 in 10 projecting an increase in employment and more than 6 in 10 expecting their volume of sales to increase. Few felt either would decrease.

Despite this apparent optimism, the earlier set of findings showed lack of capital to be one of the key obstacles to company growth so it was interesting that less than half of respondents rated government policy as being effective in encouraging capital investment. Virtually no one (1%) gave the government clear approbation. In fact two-thirds deemed the Northern Ireland Economy too reliant on the public sector. To this end it was not surprising that lower interest rates (45%) were top of the economic wish list for the business community in Northern Ireland. This was followed by pleas for lower corporation tax (19%) and a weaker pound (18%).

BUSINESS OPINION

If given the choice, the business community (61%) in Northern Ireland would be most likely to prioritise public spending in the area of health. Following that others (18%) thought the priority should be education. Interestingly, both of these issues emerged well ahead of grant and other direct assistance for industry and business. The survey clearly reveals that the business community would much prefer non-interventionist Government support via interest rates and fiscal adjustments, than by grants and inward investment.

In the August edition the survey demonstrated strong support for remaining part of the EU although support for becoming part of EMU was divided. Unease with further EU intervention was also reflected in the opinions of respondents about the amount of say the EU has in the economic affairs of Northern Ireland, with 45% indicating that it had too much say, while only 14% thought it had too little.

Again in the last edition a shortage of skills was seen as an obstacle (but not the biggest) to company growth so it was not unanticipated that some (31%) were dissatisfied with the present educational system producing the skills required. Respondents were reasonably satisfied that GCSE's (74%) and A levels (80%) provided a meaningful test of academic or vocational ability. Most (70%) were also satisfied with the way universities teach our students and although many (32%) claimed to not have had occasion to interview graduates for positions in their companies, satisfaction with the standards amongst those who did was high, with some 80% at least fairly satisfied.

However, respondents generally expressed themselves as only fairly satisfied with educational provision rather than very satisfied: this implies a degree of equivocation and suggests that the business community can see considerable scope for improvement, particularly in the provision of business and industrial skills rather than academic achievement.

Finally , there were opposing schools of thought on the future of the port of Belfast in terms of privatisation with a third agreeing that it should be privatised, a third against and the rest having no view.

This research was carried out through the medium of the Ulster Marketing Surveys Business Omnibus Survey. Interviewing was conducted at Ulster Marketing Surveys' Belfast-based 35-station Telephone Research Centre between the 24th and 28th July 2000.

The Ulster Marketing Surveys Business Omnibus Survey (conducted quarterly) comprises telephone interviews with a cross section of 200 directors, senior managers and executives of private-sector manufacturing and service companies. As such the results represent the opinions of the business community as individuals rather than companies. The service was put into place earlier this year to provide a cost effective and accessible method of researching the business community. Ulster Marketing Surveys took this initiative not only to listen to and understand the needs and circumstances of business customers but also as a platform for the expression of the views and opinions of the business community.

Any organisations interested in putting questions on the Ulster Marketing Surveys Business Omnibus should contact Fiona Norman at 028 9023 1060.